EB-1A approval rate in 2026: the number nobody in the forums wants to say out loud
If you landed here from "what's the EB-1A approval rate," you probably found pages quoting 70–90%. Those numbers are from years that no longer exist. Here is what the USCIS quarterly data looks like as of September 2026, with every figure linked to its source and date.
The headline: EB-1A (extraordinary ability) approvals fell for seven consecutive quarters and hit a record-low 32.2% in Q3 FY2026. EB-2 NIW, the other big self-petition lane, sits at 55.3%. Translation: roughly half to two-thirds of self-filed talent petitions are now being denied.
The quarter-by-quarter table
| Period | EB-1A approval | EB-2 NIW approval | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 (era of the "96% NIW" forum myths) | ~88% | ~96% | the good old days |
| FY2025 full year | 66.9% | 55.2% | ↓ both collapsing |
| Q4 FY2025 | — | 35.7% | NIW trough |
| Q1 FY2026 | 47.5% | 42.6% | ↓ EB-1A under 50% for the first time |
| Q2 FY2026 | 41.7% | 48.1% | ↓ |
| Q3 FY2026 (latest published) | 32.2% | 55.3% | ↓ EB-1A record low; NIW partial bounce |
Sources: USCIS I-140 quarterly data compiled by Manifest Law (eb2-niw-approval-rate) and GT Inside Business Immigration (Sept 2026, EB-1A quarter tables); FY2022 baselines from the same series. USCIS publishes with a one-quarter lag — Q4 FY2026 / full-year FY2026 tables are not out yet. Figures verified 2026-09-14. Approvals = approvals ÷ (approvals + denials), pending excluded — the honest denominator; some blogs use different cuts, which is why numbers differ between sites.
Why is it falling?
- Final-merits review got real. Meeting 3 of the 10 criteria is the floor, not the test. Officers now weigh whether the totality shows someone "at the top of the field" — and a thin, laundry-list petition dies here.
- The evidence bar for media and "sustained acclaim" rose. Trade-press mentions, recycled recommendation letters and self-published coverage stop carrying weight at the merits stage.
- Volume shifted toward self-petitioners as employer-sponsored lanes slowed for India/China-born applicants — more DIY filings into a stricter adjudication climate.
- Denials are concentrated where packaging fails, not where careers fail. That is the single most actionable fact on this page.
What to do with this number
- Do not read 32.2% as "my odds." It is a pool average that includes unprepared filings. A documented 3+ criteria with clean evidence plays in a different bracket.
- Do read it as "the bar moved." A petition that would have been approved in 2021 can be denied in 2026 on the same evidence, purely on final-merits framing.
- Audit before you assemble. Find which criteria you actually meet with proof an officer will accept — the criteria map breaks down all 10 with what "counts" in 2026.
- If you already hold a strong record and the pressure is an RFE clock, start with the RFE response guide.
Map your record against the criteria — free, 90 seconds
This page cites approval-rate data for context; it is educational content, not legal advice, and no statistic predicts an individual case.